City of Turku's growth continues strongly: projects up to 263,000 residents by 2045
Turku's new population forecast predicts that the city will continue to grow significantly and that the number of residents will increase to 240,000 - 263,000 by 2045.
Turku is among the small number of municipalities in Finland that are projected to grow. According to the latest forecasts, Finland’s population will only increase in about 40 municipalities in the coming decades. Alongside Turku, all other municipalities in the Turku city region are also on a growth trajectory.
The new population forecast for Turku includes a baseline projection and two alternative scenarios through 2045. For Turku, the outlook is promising: in all scenarios the population would grow, remaining competitive compared to the Helsinki and Tampere regions.
Turku, Helsinki, and Tampere from Finland’s "growth triangle," which drives national development. According to Statistics Finland, in 2024 these three metropolitan areas were home to 44% of the country’s population. This share is expected to rise to nearly 50% by 2045, according to the 2024 population forecast.
"The anticipated population growth of Turku, Helsinki, and Tampere’s urban areas would amount to roughly half a million additional residents in Finland - equivalent to the current combined population of Turku, Tampere, and Kaarina. It is also notable that, according to Statistics Finland’s forecast, the number of children under 15 will increase only in these three metropolitan areas. Within the entire growth triangle - spanning four regions and 11 sub-regions - the population share is expected to grow from 50% to 55%," says Timo Aro, Director of Strategy for the City of Turku.
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Migration as the engine of Turku’s 28% growth
Turku’s new population forecast includes a baseline and two alternative scenarios. Under the baseline, Turku would have 263,000 residents (+28%) by 2045. This projection assumes population development continues at the same average pace across key factors as during the past six years.
In a slowed growth scenario, Turku would reach 240,000 residents (+16%) by 2045. This assumes growth continues as in recent years, but immigration returns to the lower level of 2017-2021.
In the most unlikely scenario, Turku’s population would reach 292,600 (+42%) by 2045, based on the assumption that the exceptionally high levels of immigration seen in the past three years continue.
Turku’s population growth will be driven by net migration from both abroad and other Finnish municipalities. By age group, the strongest growth would be among adults aged 30-64 (+46%) and residents aged 85 and older (+89%).
The number of children will grow moderately over the period, but even in the most conservative scenario, growth among under-15s is strong enough to keep Turku among the fastest-growing municipalities for children and youth.
"Migration is - and will remain - the engine of population growth. Two-thirds of growth will come from abroad, and the rest from other Finnish municipalities. Birth rates and mortality will have only a very minor impact on the projected 2045 population," explains Elise Haapamäki, Development Manager for the City of Turku.
Population growth will be strongest in areas slated for significant construction, such as the expanding Itäharju and Kupittaa districts, Skanssi, Iso-Heikkilä, and the Port area. By contrast, areas with large elderly populations are projected to shrink.
"From a strategic management perspective, the key issues moving forward are how to support, enable, manage, and prepare for future growth," Aro summarizes.